Russia: Exchange Rate Management and De-Dollarisation
Robert Triffin International - Prometeia Associazione, January 2021
Research carried out by Prometeia in collaboration with Robert Triffin International and presented in this paper has confirmed that the European Union is Russia’s main trading partner. “Sanctions” have affected the absolute values of trade, yet have failed to generate deep change in the direction of flows. Russia’s trade with China has significantly increased, while not substantially eroding traditional trade with Europe.
The structure of the Russian economy, based on energy resources and exporting raw materials, and importing medium-tech products, complements the European production structure well, even though trade with the Asian market will become stronger.
The prospect of a dramatic evolution in sources of energy due to the environmental transition also makes change in the Russian economy more urgent. Completion of the Nord Stream will bring stability to currency revenues, which will have to be allocated to create a Russian “Recovery Fund” aimed at helping transform the country’s economic structure.
The agreement on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) requires India and Russia to strengthen cooperation with other areas of the world, notably Europe. Russia can also seize this opportunity to intensify its integration with the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States, and with other Asian countries in the area between Europe and China.